Friends For Peace In Africa

By Okot Nyormoi
July 14, 2006

The latest peace buzzword is Juba, the capital of South Sudan. This started when South Sudan offered to mediate peace talks between the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) and the government of Uganda. The latest episode is that Museveni has offered full amnesty to the LRA. However, the International Criminal Court (ICC), the USA, Britain and the UN have rejected giving amnesty to the top LRA leaders. Meanwhile, the LRA has confounded Museveni by accepting the amnesty offer. Museveni now finds himself in the awkward position of having to ask the ICC to drop the case that he brought to the ICC in the first place. This peace initiative has presented a lot of people with a serious moral dilemma of whether to support the peace dialogue or the prosecution of LRA leaders. Lost in all this is the voice of the victims on whose behalf each group claims to be fighting, literally or figuratively.

It is legitimate to ask whether this is still the same old yoyo game Museveni has been playing before. To address this question, it is instructive to review Museveni’s history of negotiation in the last 20 years or so¹. In the current situation, Museveni is trying to play his old game of yoyo: no amnesty, yes amnesty, no peace talk, yes peace talk, dead line here, no it is over there. The yoyo game has worked in the past because for whatever reasons, the world accepted whatever contradictiofns he doled out. Donor countries in particular supported Museveni for the stability he brought to the South and overlooked his genocide project in the North. However, it is now time to ask if Museveni’s yoyo game will work this time.

In offering amnesty to Kony, Museveni argued that he was doing it because he had failed to find partners in the region to help him arrest Kony as demanded by the ICC. Although Museveni claims the UN has barred him from invading the DRC, it was reported that UPDF dressed as SPLA had in fact re-invaded the DRC recently but failed to arrest the rebels. Nonetheless, he claims that he has already defeated the LRA. If he has already defeated the LRA, one wonders why he still incarcerates 1.6 million people in the death trap camps where they are dying more from the horrendous camp conditions than from military hostilities. To save face, Museveni is blaming the Sudan, DRC and UN for failing to arrest the top LRA leaders and the ICC for insisting on prosecuting the case. In typical Museveni fashion, he gave an ultimatum to the LRA to surrender by the end of July or else he will kill them. Obviously, his bluff fell flat on its face and the deadline was moved today to September 12, 2006, which will most likely come and go just as many others have done before it.

Museveni also argued that he is offering amnesty to the rebels as a favor to the young government of South Sudan and to the people of Northern Uganda. This is nothing but arrogance, and callousness towards the victims of this war. The real reason Museveni is offering amnesty is that he is now caught in his own web of lies, insincerity, misinformation, malice, and political and financial profiteering from the war. South Sudan may have a young government, but it is not Museveni’s 10^th district, just as Rwanda and the DRC refused to be. It is the same arrogant and patronizing attitude being exhibited here that led to his falling out with the late Laurent Kabila of the DRC and Paul Kagame of Rwanda. It did not work in the DRC and Rwanda and it will not work in South Sudan.

Furthermore, Museveni is caught off guard by how much the South Sudanese government peace initiative has resonated with the world, and has effectively silenced the Bigombe initiative in which he was the main conductor of the orchestra. This time the conductor of the orchestra is Dr. Machar.

For Museveni to insinuate that he is doing a favor to the people in the camps is to heap insult upon injury. He has an obligation to the citizens of northern Uganda, which he has deliberately refused to fulfill. Instead, he preferred to have genocide fester for years. Neither Museveni nor Kony have the moral authority to bestow amnesty on one another. If anything, it is the suffering people in the camps who can, if they so wish, choose to forgive them for the crimes they have committed against them.

This initiative has also exposed Museveni’s loneliness in the region. Kenya and Tanzania have kept their distance. The DRC and Rwanda are literally sworn enemies. With South Sudan acting independently now, Museveni finds himself a very isolated leader in the region. This is why his old yoyo game is not going to work this time. Whereas in the past, the yoyo game was an instrument of control, which kept people guessing, it is fast becoming a game of self-delusion and confusion.

Internationally, while donor countries have publicly proclaimed the last election free and fair, privately they are morally embarrassed and confused for supporting Museveni’s regime. Their embarrassment has lately been heightened by the speeches of Dr. Olara Otunnu, the former UN Under-Secretary General for Children in Armed Conflicts, the Retired Bishop of Kitgum and so many other people, who have been calling on them to recognize that the tragic humanitarian situation in Northern Uganda is genocide as orchestrated by Museveni’s regime.

Museveni’s insatiable callousness towards the people in the death-camps of northern Uganda, the prevalence of corruption within the country and political mistreatment of opposition leader, Dr. Kizza Besigye, have caused a serious dilemma among donor countries. While he prosecutes Dr. Besigye for contacting the LRA, he allows Bigombe to talk to Kony almost daily and now wants to pardon Kony. Such contradictions have led some donors to express their concerns privately, but one of them (Britain) has decided to cut aid to Uganda. Furthermore, the US, Canada, Germany and others are considering legislating conditional aid mandates, which would require an end to the war, corruption and dictatorship.

While Museveni is still playing his same old game of misinforming people by spreading bold-face lies, the situation has significantly changed. Fewer people than before are now willing to accept his old tricks at face value. Therefore, he should stop passing the bucket and accept his full responsibility in the war. He must seek to put an end to it as a matter of urgency; otherwise, it may be too late to save himself from being steamrolled by the march of history.

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Footnotes

¹1985: Museveni negotiated a peace agreement between Tito Okello Lutwa, which he later termed a ‘peace joke’. He blamed it on Tito Lutwa’s regime, alleging that they were merely using it to re-arm and reorganize.

1988: Acholi elders went on a peace mission to meet with the LRA. They were ambushed and killed. The government alleged that they were killed by the LRA.

1994: Ms. Betty Bigombe led a government team to negotiate with the rebels, but Museveni scuttled it by issuing a seven-day ultimatum to the LRA. Museveni turned around and blamed the LRA for using the occasion to reorganize and stock up on weapons. He also blamed the Sudanese Khartoum government for supporting the LRA.

1999: Museveni made a peace deal with Sudan, mediated by the Carter Center in Atlanta. Sudan permitted Uganda to pursue the rebels under the Iron Fist Operation with disastrous consequences. The LRA struck deep into Uganda while the UPDF was busy looking for it in South Sudan. Museveni blamed it on poor training of UPDF commanders, poor equipment and lack of transport.

2003:  Acholi Religious Leaders Peace Initiative was conducting a dialogue with the LRA with the approval of the government. However, the effort was abandoned when UPDF bombed the venue and blamed it on the LRA.