Friends For Peace In Africa

November 19, 2008

DAILY MONITOR | OPINIONS & COMMENTARIES

EAR TO THE GROUND | Charles Onyango Obbo

In 2006 after many years of  turmoil in which nearly a staggering four million people were killed either directly or indirectly as a result of  war, the Democratic Republic of Congo  held its first free, almost-free, elections in nearly 50 years. It seemed the worst was over and the Great Lakes region, with a fragile election in Burundi– and the Lord's Resistance Army finally agreeing to talk peace with Kampala – was finally going to get a shine again.

Not any more. A few weeks ago, the Kivu-based rebel leader, Laurent Nkunda, let his dogs out accusing the Kinshasa government of giving the exile militia that committed the genocide in Rwanda free rein to massacre the Banyamulenge (the Congolese cousins of the Tutsi ) and other Congolese.

Because the fighting and humanitarian crisis it has sparked is concentrated at near Goma, it seems so far away from Uganda. Uganda began withdrawing from the DRC in 2002 in the wake of the peace agreement that ended its disastrous campaign there during the so-called "Second Congo War" (1998-2002). The government and UPDF's reputation was in ruins, as it and its officers were portrayed by an international report as having turned into pillaging bandits.

Still, there's a risk that Uganda might get entangled in the war again, this time possibly even more deeply. Uganda backed the warlord Jean-Pierre Bemba in the "Second Congo War" and during the 2006  elections– and lost its deposit when Bemba was defeated (or cheated of victory, as he claims). Bemba fled to  Portugal after the Kabila government charged him with treason, and eventually settled in Belgium where he was arrested early this year and eventually charged with war crimes in the International Criminal Court.

Bemba's misfortunes at the hands of  DR Congo President  Joseph Kabila didn't sour relations with Uganda, partly because Kabila too has old close links to sections of the NRM leadership. Secondly, Kabila Jnr agreed to cooperate with Uganda to deal with Joseph Kony's rebels once they crossed from South Sudan and took refuge in the jungles near the DRC-Sudan border.

The first real tension between the Museveni government and Kinshasa came over oil in Lake Albert a few months ago over Uganda and DRC's competing interests, and a failure to agree on the borderline over the water. There were exchanges of fire between the UPDF, which protect oil prospectors Tullow and Heritage on the Uganda side, and the DRC army, the FARC, which are protecting Divine Inspiration and another firm called H which have now been granted concessions on the DRC side.

In addition if, as has happened, Kabila is too preoccupied with fighting Nkunda and withdraws his forces from the anti-LRA duty, it gives Kony an opportunity to reorganise. The fear that the LRA is exploiting the vacuum might just be the "legitimate" reason Uganda needs to re-enter DRC. Having done that, a distracted Kabila would offer Kampala an additional opportunity to also assert control over the disputed Lake Albert oil fields.

What has complicated the situation is the re-entrance of another force  from the "Second Congo War", Angola, to back up the Kabila government against Nkunda in the Kivu region.  Zimbabwe too, whose military has been  hit by very difficult economic times at home and would relish an opportunity to return to the DRC and profit from the illegal mining, is itching to move in after  SADC voted recently to send aid to support Kinshasa.

Rwanda will not stand by and watch Nkunda's forces being decimated by the Angolans and Zimbabweans, because it would strengthen anti-Kigali rebels who are on the side of Kabila.

Helping Kabila to reassert control will mean strengthening him militarily in all of the eastern DRC– including securing Kinshasa's claim to the disputed portion of Lake Albert. If the Angolans (and Zimbabweans if they jump into the fray) get drawn deep into eastern DRC to protect Kabila, and are confronted with the Lake Albert question, it is only natural that they could try and tip the scales against Museveni by backing his enemies, where they exist- in this case the LRA!

But even without that or other overt threats from the Angolans, Kampala is unlikely to accept that a force with the might of the Angolan army be located at its western border. Because of the rapprochement between Kigali and Kampala, and the fact that they could be faced with common threat from the DRC, could take us back to either 1996 or 1998 when the two joined  hands to oust dictator  Mobutu Sese Seko, and two years later against the erratic Kabila whom they had installed in power, but turned against them.

Kabila, the father, who was assassinated in circumstances that still remain unclear, then relied on the Angolans and Zimbabweans to keep the presidency in the family. It is a different time, and the issues have changed. But the players in the DR Congo are still the same. Be very afraid of the repeat of the nightmare of the "Second Congo War" and its disruptive effect on the Great Lakes region.

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