Yet it is a mark of his amiable character, and his Teflon nature that the public has continued to cut him some slack. His ability to maintain genuinely cordial relations with members of the opposition parties, and his handling of the peace talks with the LRA's Joseph Kony have earned him a good measure of respect. For these and other reasons, many within and outside the ruling party view Rugunda as the only credible NRM candidate in the 2011 presidential elections. And this may very well be the root cause of Rugunda's new assignment.
In June this year, Maj. Kakooza Mutale, one of the few presidential advisors who have Museveni's ear, disclosed that there was a 10-person team within the NRM's top ranks that was seeking to unseat Museveni in 2011, and that Rugunda was their man. Whereas Rugunda denied any interest in the presidency, he became a marked man the moment Museveni heard intelligence reports of the alleged scheme.
The President said as much when he launched a dismissive attack on Rugunda, in an effort to diminish the latter's stature. During this year's Labour Day celebrations at Kololo, Museveni went native on Rugunda. "I hear some people going to see Kony. I have never sent NRM to go and talk to Kony. This Rugunda is a minister who works for prisoners on death row. In NRM we work for the people."
The election of Uganda to the Security Council offered Museveni an opportunity to exile his erstwhile challenger, without appearing to have fired him. To give it a semblance of a promotion, Museveni elevated the UN posting to cabinet level, enabling Rugunda to retain his ministerial status, reporting directly to the President.
The more likely scenario was that Museveni's intention was to demote Rugunda, but to keep him close enough under his wings to neuter him. There is already some suspicion that Museveni does not want Rugunda to succeed in his new assignment. This suspicion has been fuelled by Museveni's decision to remove the two top ambassadors currently representing him in New York, leaving no high level official with the experience, knowledge, network and institutional memory that Rugunda will need during his tenure at the UN. Ambassador Francis Butagira has been transferred to Berlin. His deputy, Ambassador Adonia Ayebare, has been demoted to become deputy head of mission in Addis Ababa.
Ayebare, a former ambassador and head of mission in Kigali and a long-standing member of the mediation team on Burundi, is said to have cultivated a wide international network and earned respect among the major players at the UN. It is unclear why he has been demoted to the less influential and less desirable post in Ethiopia. Had Museveni wanted Rugunda to succeed, he would have kept either Butagira or Ayebare or both in New York to help the new super-envoy to navigate his way through one of the most intricate multilateral organisations.
Instead, Rugunda will be deputised by Ambassador Patrick Mugoya, currently the Director of Regional Cooperation at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Kampala. The two freshmen will be expected to learn on the job without much guidance.
Whatever the President's intentions were, Rugunda should view this appointment as a great opportunity for him to enjoy a breather, away from the internal civil war that is raging in the NRM. Rugunda has the character and credentials to succeed in New York. He has great people skills, with an environmentally friendly persona that will make it easy for him to successfully network in the corridors of the UN.
However, diplomatic niceties which are essential in the General Assembly, are of limited use in the Security Council where diplomatic fist-fights are fought with information, knowledge, impeccable analysis, and a business-like approach to the world's most thorny issues.
Rugunda is a bright and eloquent speaker who will acquit himself very well, as long as he has the tools to work with. He will invariably be compared with Ambassador Olara Otunnu, the last Ugandan ambassador to earn a high profile at the UN because of his brilliant performance. Otunnu's record will be the yardstick against which Rugunda will be measured. It is a tall order, but an achievable one if Rugunda can develop a capacity to think globally and to serve Africa and the world, not Museveni and NRM.
It will help that he will directly report to the President in Kampala. This will elevate his stature among his colleagues at the UN, who will understand his words to represent the position of the only person who really matters in the Ugandan government. However, Rugunda will need to be independent in thinking and in actions from his President.
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http://www.monitor.co.ug/artman/publish/muniini/Rugunda_s_appointment_looks_good_but_it_raises_a_red_flag_76848.shtml
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